The polls used by politicians often get downplayed, but they are an extremely important part of the democratic process. The problem, however, is they get misreported fairly often, which of course leads voters to believe they are inaccurate, but the reality is they virtually always fall within a reasonable margin of error. This makes the 2016 presidential election polls an even bigger mystery.
Even the internal Republican polls were wrong in 2016, which is extremely odd given the fact that their own polls are even more accurate than the polls seen by the public.
Inside a Politico article, there’s a surprising revelation that the Republican Party’s own internal polling predicted Trump losing and the GOP losing 20 seats in the House:
Less than an hour before the polls closed on November 8, 2016, Ryan made the phone call he’d been dreading. With a handful of staffers and family members lingering nearby, Ryan was patched through to senior officials at the RNC in Washington. They had been analyzing voting patterns and running turnout models throughout the day, and were prepared to share their projections with the speaker: Trump was going to go down in flames, earning just 220 electoral votes. Republicans would lose nearly 20 House seats. Democrats would retake control of the United States Senate. Exactly the debacle Ryan had feared.
Due to the accuracy of the data, these internal polls are always even more accurate than any other poll, but even the RNC’s polls were mysteriously way off compared to the outcome. The opinion of many is that the internal polls were not off at all, but rather something fishy happened.
Bill Palmer points out, “This tells us that not only were the internal RNC polls wrong about the presidential election, they were wrong across the board. As we learn more and more about how the Trump campaign conspired with Russian government hackers to influence the outcome of the election, it becomes more clear that the polls were wrong for a reason – and that reason is that they weren’t actually wrong. Instead, the Russian hackers went beyond merely stealing voter data and giving it to the Trump campaign.”
The Republican’s own polls are further proof that the results of the 2016 election do not make sense. It was a statistical impossibility that Donald Trump would win the election. So much so that Republicans had already chalked up a loss for Trump.
When the numbers are this far off, things need to be double checked and triple checked. We can only hope that Mueller has a specialized team investigating this as we speak.